CHC @ STL

MLB · 7:45 PM ET · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · Final 2–3

Moneyline (straight up)

Lean CHC confidence 23.5/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	8 away · 2 home (10 models)
Win probability	52% (CHC, model average)
Edge vs market	+2.7% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	STL (+9 handle over tickets)

80% of 10 models away; sharp money fades it (+9 on home)

Against the spread

Lean CHC confidence 12.0/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	CHC (+8 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+8 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability CHC 54% · STL 46%

Most likely score CHC 2 – 3 STL (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 44% · Under 56%

STL covers 1.5 63%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.