ATL @ NYM

MLB · 1:10 PM ET · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · Final 2–3

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong ATL confidence 36.1/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	6 away · 1 home (7 models)
Win probability	53% (ATL, model average)
Sharp money	NYM (+2 handle over tickets)

86% of 7 models away

Against the spread

Lean ATL confidence 30.0/100

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	ATL (+37 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+37 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability ATL 52% · NYM 48%

Most likely score ATL 4 – 3 NYM (2%)

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.