MIL @ SF

MLB · 9:45 PM ET · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Final 8–2

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong MIL confidence 58.3/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	9 away · 1 home (10 models)
Win probability	56% (MIL, model average)
Edge vs market	-3.1% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	MIL (+10 handle over tickets)

90% of 10 models away; sharp money agrees (+10 handle)

Against the spread

Split MIL confidence 0.0/100

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	MIL (+2 handle over tickets)

No directional edge from the available signals.

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability MIL 57% · SF 43%

Most likely score MIL 3 – 2 SF (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

SF covers 1.5 61%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.