CHC @ STL

MLB · 7:45 PM ET · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Final 10–2

Moneyline (straight up)

Lean STL confidence 17.7/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	3 away · 6 home (9 models)
Win probability	52% (STL, model average)
Edge vs market	+2.2% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	CHC (+2 handle over tickets)

67% of 9 models home

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability CHC 48% · STL 52%

Most likely score CHC 2 – 3 STL (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

STL covers 1.5 67%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.