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TEX @ TB

MLB · 6:40 PM ET · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Final 4–1

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong TB confidence 62.6/100 ✗ Pick lost
Model consensus 0 away · 7 home (7 models)
Win probability 61% (TB, model average)
Edge vs market -1.0% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money TB (+8 handle over tickets)

100% of 7 models home; sharp money agrees (+8 handle)

Against the spread

Split TEX confidence 0.0/100
Model consensus 0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money TEX (+1 handle over tickets)

No directional edge from the available signals.

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations
Win probability TEX 40% · TB 60%
Most likely score TEX 2 – 4 TB (2%)
Total 8.5 Over 45% · Under 55%
TB covers -1.5 43%
Total points — simulated distribution
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The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.

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