PHI @ MIA

MLB · 6:40 PM ET · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Final 0–1

Moneyline (straight up)

Lean MIA confidence 13.0/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	3 away · 5 home (8 models)
Win probability	54% (MIA, model average)
Edge vs market	+3.5% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	MIA (+3 handle over tickets)

62% of 8 models home

Against the spread

Lean MIA confidence 12.0/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	MIA (+8 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+8 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability PHI 46% · MIA 54%

Most likely score PHI 2 – 3 MIA (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

MIA covers -1.5 38%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.