ARI
@
PIT
Moneyline (straight up)
Lean
PIT
confidence 32.0/100
✗ Pick lost
| Model consensus | 0 away · 8 home (8 models) |
| Win probability | 57% (PIT, model average) |
| Edge vs market | +5.0% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability |
| Sharp money | ARI (+30 handle over tickets) |
100% of 8 models home; sharp money fades it (+30 on away)
Against the spread
Lean
ARI
confidence 30.0/100
✓ Pick won
| Model consensus | 0 away · 0 home (no model line) |
| Sharp money | ARI (+38 handle over tickets) |
sharp money agrees (+38 handle)
Iceberg Simulation
10,000 simulations
Win probability
ARI 46% · PIT 54%
Most likely score
ARI 2 – 3 PIT (2%)
Total 9.5
Over 45% · Under 55%
PIT covers -1.5
38%
Total points — simulated distribution
The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.
Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.
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