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CHC @ STL

MLB · 7:45 PM ET · Monday, July 27, 2026 · Final 7–3

Moneyline (straight up)

Split CHC confidence 5.9/100
Model consensus 5 away · 4 home (9 models)
Win probability 50% (CHC, model average)
Edge vs market -5.5% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money CHC (+4 handle over tickets)

56% of 9 models away

Against the spread

Lean CHC confidence 30.0/100 ✓ Pick won
Model consensus 0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money CHC (+28 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+28 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations
Win probability CHC 51% · STL 49%
Most likely score CHC 4 – 3 STL (2%)
Total 9.5 Over 45% · Under 55%
STL covers 1.5 64%
Total points — simulated distribution
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The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.

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