ATL @ NYM

MLB · 7:10 PM ET · Monday, July 27, 2026 · Final 3–14

Moneyline (straight up)

Lean ATL confidence 10.8/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	6 away · 4 home (10 models)
Win probability	51% (ATL, model average)
Edge vs market	+2.1% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	ATL (+6 handle over tickets)

60% of 10 models away

Against the spread

Lean ATL confidence 30.0/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	ATL (+27 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+27 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability ATL 51% · NYM 49%

Most likely score ATL 3 – 2 NYM (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 44% · Under 56%

NYM covers 1.5 64%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.