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TOR @ WSH

MLB · 6:45 PM ET · Monday, July 27, 2026 · Final 3–2

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong WSH confidence 52.5/100 ✗ Pick lost
Model consensus 1 away · 7 home (8 models)
Win probability 59% (WSH, model average)
Edge vs market +3.4% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money WSH (+9 handle over tickets)

88% of 8 models home; sharp money agrees (+9 handle)

Against the spread

Lean WSH confidence 30.0/100 ✗ Pick lost
Model consensus 0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money WSH (+31 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+31 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations
Win probability TOR 44% · WSH 56%
Most likely score TOR 3 – 4 WSH (2%)
Total 10.0 Over 41% · Under 50%
WSH covers -1.5 42%
Total points — simulated distribution
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The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.

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