PHI @ MIA

MLB · 6:40 PM ET · Monday, July 27, 2026 · Final 7–8

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong PHI confidence 50.6/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	7 away · 0 home (7 models)
Win probability	56% (PHI, model average)
Edge vs market	-5.8% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 7 models away

Against the spread

Lean PHI confidence 16.5/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	PHI (+11 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+11 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability PHI 56% · MIA 44%

Most likely score PHI 3 – 2 MIA (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

MIA covers 1.5 62%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.