BAL @ DET

MLB · 6:40 PM ET · Monday, July 27, 2026 · Final 8–5

Moneyline (straight up)

Lean DET confidence 26.5/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	3 away · 5 home (8 models)
Win probability	51% (DET, model average)
Edge vs market	-0.8% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	DET (+9 handle over tickets)

62% of 8 models home; sharp money agrees (+9 handle)

Against the spread

Split DET confidence 0.0/100

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	DET (+5 handle over tickets)

No directional edge from the available signals.

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability BAL 51% · DET 49%

Most likely score BAL 2 – 3 DET (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

DET covers -1.5 33%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.