ARI @ PIT

MLB · 6:40 PM ET · Monday, July 27, 2026 · Final 2–3

Moneyline (straight up)

Lean PIT confidence 37.0/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 8 home (8 models)
Win probability	55% (PIT, model average)
Edge vs market	+3.2% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	ARI (+15 handle over tickets)

100% of 8 models home; sharp money fades it (+15 on away)

Against the spread

Lean PIT confidence 30.0/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	PIT (+29 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+29 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability ARI 45% · PIT 55%

Most likely score ARI 2 – 3 PIT (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

PIT covers -1.5 39%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.