NYY @ PHI

MLB · 7:20 PM ET · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · Final 4–11

Moneyline (straight up)

Lean PHI confidence 29.3/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	1 away · 9 home (10 models)
Win probability	61% (PHI, model average)
Edge vs market	-4.7% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	NYY (+14 handle over tickets)

90% of 10 models home; sharp money fades it (+14 on away)

Against the spread

Lean PHI confidence 24.0/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	PHI (+16 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+16 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability NYY 42% · PHI 58%

Most likely score NYY 2 – 3 PHI (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 44% · Under 56%

PHI covers -1.5 40%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.