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TB @ KC

MLB · 7:40 PM ET · Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong TB confidence 48.8/100
Model consensus 6 away · 0 home (6 models)
Win probability 54% (TB, model average)
Edge vs market -1.2% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Best available price -122 at novig
Sharp money no clear split

100% of 6 models away

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations
Win probability TB 52% · KC 48%
Most likely score TB 3 – 4 KC (2%)
Total 10.5 Over 46% · Under 54%
KC covers 1.5 62%
Total points — simulated distribution
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The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.

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