HOU @ CWS

MLB · 7:10 PM ET · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · Final 4–1

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong CWS confidence 47.2/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	3 away · 7 home (10 models)
Win probability	52% (CWS, model average)
Edge vs market	-3.5% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	CWS (+17 handle over tickets)

70% of 10 models home; sharp money agrees (+17 handle)

Against the spread

Lean CWS confidence 12.0/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	CWS (+8 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+8 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability HOU 49% · CWS 51%

Most likely score HOU 3 – 4 CWS (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 46% · Under 54%

CWS covers -1.5 35%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.