CHC @ PIT

MLB · 6:40 PM ET · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · Final 11–0

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong PIT confidence 39.0/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	1 away · 7 home (8 models)
Win probability	59% (PIT, model average)
Edge vs market	+2.6% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	PIT (+2 handle over tickets)

88% of 8 models home

Against the spread

Lean CHC confidence 30.0/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	CHC (+31 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+31 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability CHC 44% · PIT 56%

Most likely score CHC 2 – 3 PIT (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 44% · Under 56%

PIT covers -1.5 38%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.