HOU @ CWS

MLB · 7:40 PM ET · Friday, July 24, 2026 · Final 9–5

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong CWS confidence 45.0/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	1 away · 10 home (11 models)
Win probability	55% (CWS, model average)
Edge vs market	+1.0% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	HOU (+1 handle over tickets)

91% of 11 models home

Against the spread

Split CWS confidence 0.0/100

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	CWS (+2 handle over tickets)

No directional edge from the available signals.

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability HOU 45% · CWS 55%

Most likely score HOU 4 – 3 CWS (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 46% · Under 54%

CWS covers -1.5 39%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.