CLE @ TB

MLB · 7:10 PM ET · Friday, July 24, 2026 · Final 3–11

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong TB confidence 68.5/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 11 home (11 models)
Win probability	56% (TB, model average)
Edge vs market	-0.1% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	TB (+9 handle over tickets)

100% of 11 models home; sharp money agrees (+9 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability CLE 46% · TB 54%

Most likely score CLE 2 – 3 TB (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 44% · Under 56%

TB covers -1.5 36%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.