LA Galaxy @ San Jose Earthquakes

MLS · 10:30 PM ET · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · Final 1–1

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong San Jose Earthquakes confidence 43.3/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 4 home (4 models)
Win probability	61% (San Jose Earthquakes, model average)
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 4 models home

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability LA Galaxy 26% · San Jose Earthquakes 48% · Draw 25%

Most likely score LA Galaxy 1 – 1 San Jose Earthquakes (12%)

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.