Toronto FC @ Dc United

MLS · 7:30 PM ET · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · Final 1–2

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong Toronto FC confidence 43.3/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	4 away · 0 home (4 models)
Win probability	51% (Toronto FC, model average)
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 4 models away

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability Toronto FC 38% · Dc United 37% · Draw 25%

Most likely score Toronto FC 1 – 1 Dc United (12%)

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.