Seattle Sounders FC @ Philadelphia Union

MLS · 7:30 PM ET · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · Final 0–1

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong Seattle Sounders FC confidence 43.3/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	4 away · 0 home (4 models)
Win probability	61% (Seattle Sounders FC, model average)
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 4 models away

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability Seattle Sounders FC 49% · Philadelphia Union 27% · Draw 24%

Most likely score Seattle Sounders FC 1 – 1 Philadelphia Union (11%)

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.