21+ · Where legal · For entertainment only — not betting advice. Problem gambling? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

← All picks

PIT @ PHI

MLB · 6:40 PM ET · Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong PHI confidence 48.8/100
Model consensus 0 away · 6 home (6 models)
Win probability 56% (PHI, model average)
Edge vs market -0.2% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Best available price -130 at novig
Sharp money no clear split

100% of 6 models home

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations
Win probability PIT 45% · PHI 55%
Most likely score PIT 2 – 3 PHI (3%)
Total 7.5 Over 45% · Under 55%
PHI covers -1.5 37%
Total points — simulated distribution
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.

Advertisement