Belgium @ Senegal

World Cup · 2:00 PM ET · Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong Belgium confidence 32.5/100

Model consensus	2 away · 0 home (2 models)
Win probability	56% (Belgium, model average)
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 2 models away

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability Belgium 42% · Senegal 32% · Draw 26%

Most likely score Belgium 1 – 1 Senegal (13%)

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.