FC Dallas @ Austin FC

MLS · 8:30 PM ET · Sunday, August 16, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Split FC Dallas confidence 21.7/100

Model consensus	1 away · 0 home (1 models)
Win probability	67% (FC Dallas, model average)
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 1 model away

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability FC Dallas 55% · Austin FC 21% · Draw 24%

Most likely score FC Dallas 1 – 1 Austin FC (11%)

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.