Philadelphia Union @ New York City

MLS · 6:00 PM ET · Sunday, August 16, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Split Philadelphia Union confidence 21.7/100

Model consensus	1 away · 0 home (1 models)
Win probability	55% (Philadelphia Union, model average)
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 1 model away

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability Philadelphia Union 42% · New York City 33% · Draw 25%

Most likely score Philadelphia Union 1 – 1 New York City (12%)

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.