SEA @ HOU

MLB · 7:20 PM ET · Sunday, August 16, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Lean HOU confidence 19.0/100

Model consensus	0 away · 3 home (3 models)
Win probability	55% (HOU, model average)
Edge vs market	-0.4% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Best available price	-125 at novig
Sharp money	SEA (+21 handle over tickets)

100% of 3 models home; sharp money fades it (+21 on away)

Against the spread

Lean HOU confidence 22.5/100

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	HOU (+15 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+15 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability SEA 46% · HOU 54%

Most likely score SEA 4 – 3 HOU (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 44% · Under 56%

HOU covers -1.5 36%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.