TEX
@
ATH
Moneyline (straight up)
Lean
TEX
confidence 30.0/100
| Model consensus | 3 away · 0 home (3 models) |
| Win probability | 53% (TEX, model average) |
| Edge vs market | -2.6% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability |
| Best available price | -127 at novig |
| Sharp money | ATH (+9 handle over tickets) |
100% of 3 models away; sharp money fades it (+9 on home)
Against the spread
Lean
TEX
confidence 21.0/100
| Model consensus | 0 away · 0 home (no model line) |
| Sharp money | TEX (+14 handle over tickets) |
sharp money agrees (+14 handle)
Iceberg Simulation
10,000 simulations
Win probability
TEX 52% · ATH 48%
Most likely score
TEX 3 – 4 ATH (2%)
Total 10.5
Over 46% · Under 54%
ATH covers 1.5
62%
Total points — simulated distribution
The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.
Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.
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