SD @ CLE

MLB · 1:40 PM ET · Sunday, August 16, 2026

Moneyline (straight up)

Lean SD confidence 13.0/100

Model consensus	2 away · 1 home (3 models)
Win probability	50% (SD, model average)
Edge vs market	-1.3% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Best available price	-108 at draftkings
Sharp money	SD (+3 handle over tickets)

67% of 3 models away

Against the spread

Lean SD confidence 30.0/100

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	SD (+30 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+30 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability SD 50% · CLE 50%

Most likely score SD 2 – 4 CLE (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

CLE covers 1.5 65%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.