BAL
@
TB
Moneyline (straight up)
Strong
TB
confidence 39.0/100
| Model consensus | 0 away · 3 home (3 models) |
| Win probability | 56% (TB, model average) |
| Edge vs market | -1.9% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability |
| Best available price | -138 at fanduel |
| Sharp money | TB (+2 handle over tickets) |
100% of 3 models home
Against the spread
Lean
TB
confidence 24.0/100
| Model consensus | 0 away · 0 home (no model line) |
| Sharp money | TB (+16 handle over tickets) |
sharp money agrees (+16 handle)
Iceberg Simulation
10,000 simulations
Win probability
BAL 45% · TB 55%
Most likely score
BAL 2 – 3 TB (3%)
Total 7.5
Over 45% · Under 55%
TB covers -1.5
37%
Total points — simulated distribution
The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.
Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.
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