SF
@
ARI
Moneyline (straight up)
Split
ARI
confidence 8.2/100
| Model consensus | 2 away · 4 home (6 models) |
| Win probability | 51% (ARI, model average) |
| Edge vs market | -1.3% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability |
| Best available price | -111 at novig |
| Sharp money | SF (+8 handle over tickets) |
67% of 6 models home; sharp money fades it (+8 on away)
Against the spread
Split
ARI
confidence 0.0/100
| Model consensus | 0 away · 0 home (no model line) |
| Sharp money | ARI (+3 handle over tickets) |
No directional edge from the available signals.
Iceberg Simulation
10,000 simulations
Win probability
SF 49% · ARI 51%
Most likely score
SF 3 – 4 ARI (2%)
Total 9.5
Over 45% · Under 55%
ARI covers -1.5
36%
Total points — simulated distribution
The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.
Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.
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