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TB @ COL

MLB · 8:40 PM ET · Monday, August 3, 2026 · Final 13–9

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong TB confidence 32.5/100 ✓ Pick won
Model consensus 8 away · 2 home (10 models)
Win probability 56% (TB, model average)
Edge vs market -6.8% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money no clear split

80% of 10 models away

Against the spread

Split TB confidence 0.0/100
Model consensus 0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money TB (+4 handle over tickets)

No directional edge from the available signals.

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations
Win probability TB 56% · COL 44%
Most likely score TB 4 – 5 COL (2%)
Total 11.5 Over 46% · Under 54%
COL covers 1.5 56%
Total points — simulated distribution
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The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.

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