STL @ NYY

MLB · 7:05 PM ET · Monday, August 3, 2026 · Final 13–7

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong NYY confidence 54.2/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 10 home (10 models)
Win probability	63% (NYY, model average)
Edge vs market	-5.4% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 10 models home

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability STL 35% · NYY 65%

Most likely score STL 2 – 3 NYY (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 46% · Under 54%

NYY covers -1.5 47%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.