STL @ TOR

MLB · 1:37 PM ET · Sunday, August 2, 2026 · Final 5–1

Moneyline (straight up)

Split TOR confidence 0.0/100

Model consensus	3 away · 5 home (8 models)
Win probability	52% (TOR, model average)
Edge vs market	+0.7% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	STL (+18 handle over tickets)

62% of 8 models home; sharp money fades it (+18 on away)

Against the spread

Lean STL confidence 27.0/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	STL (+18 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+18 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability STL 51% · TOR 49%

Most likely score STL 2 – 3 TOR (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

TOR covers -1.5 34%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.