Real Salt Lake @ St Louis City SC

MLS · 8:30 PM ET · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · Final 1–1

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong Real Salt Lake confidence 32.5/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	2 away · 0 home (2 models)
Win probability	52% (Real Salt Lake, model average)
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 2 models away

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability Real Salt Lake 39% · St Louis City SC 35% · Draw 26%

Most likely score Real Salt Lake 1 – 1 St Louis City SC (12%)

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.