Atlanta United FC @ Philadelphia Union

MLS · 7:30 PM ET · Saturday, August 1, 2026 · Final 2–3

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong Philadelphia Union confidence 32.5/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 2 home (2 models)
Win probability	56% (Philadelphia Union, model average)
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 2 models home

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability Atlanta United FC 31% · Philadelphia Union 44% · Draw 25%

Most likely score Atlanta United FC 1 – 1 Philadelphia Union (12%)

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.