MIL
@
LAA
Moneyline (straight up)
Strong
MIL
confidence 21.7/100
✓ Pick won
| Model consensus | 7 away · 3 home (10 models) |
| Win probability | 52% (MIL, model average) |
| Edge vs market | -7.4% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability |
| Sharp money | LAA (+2 handle over tickets) |
70% of 10 models away
Against the spread
Lean
MIL
confidence 19.5/100
✓ Pick won
| Model consensus | 0 away · 0 home (no model line) |
| Sharp money | MIL (+13 handle over tickets) |
sharp money agrees (+13 handle)
Iceberg Simulation
10,000 simulations
Win probability
MIL 50% · LAA 50%
Most likely score
MIL 3 – 2 LAA (2%)
Total 8.5
Over 46% · Under 54%
LAA covers 1.5
66%
Total points — simulated distribution
The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.
Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.
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