BOS @ LAD

MLB · 10:10 PM ET · Friday, July 31, 2026 · Final 9–4

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong LAD confidence 53.2/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 9 home (9 models)
Win probability	59% (LAD, model average)
Edge vs market	+3.0% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	LAD (+4 handle over tickets)

100% of 9 models home

Against the spread

Lean BOS confidence 30.0/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	BOS (+34 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+34 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability BOS 42% · LAD 58%

Most likely score BOS 2 – 3 LAD (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

LAD covers 1.5 73%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.