KC
@
COL
Moneyline (straight up)
Lean
KC
confidence 28.3/100
✗ Pick lost
| Model consensus | 9 away · 1 home (10 models) |
| Win probability | 51% (KC, model average) |
| Edge vs market | +1.8% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability |
| Sharp money | COL (+15 handle over tickets) |
90% of 10 models away; sharp money fades it (+15 on home)
Against the spread
Lean
KC
confidence 30.0/100
✗ Pick lost
| Model consensus | 0 away · 0 home (no model line) |
| Sharp money | KC (+28 handle over tickets) |
sharp money agrees (+28 handle)
Iceberg Simulation
10,000 simulations
Win probability
KC 50% · COL 50%
Most likely score
KC 3 – 4 COL (2%)
Total 11.0
Over 41% · Under 51%
COL covers 1.5
62%
Total points — simulated distribution
The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.
Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.
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