TEX @ HOU

MLB · 8:10 PM ET · Friday, July 31, 2026 · Final 2–11

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong HOU confidence 32.5/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	2 away · 8 home (10 models)
Win probability	55% (HOU, model average)
Edge vs market	+1.6% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	HOU (+4 handle over tickets)

80% of 10 models home

Against the spread

Lean HOU confidence 21.0/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	HOU (+14 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+14 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability TEX 44% · HOU 56%

Most likely score TEX 2 – 3 HOU (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

HOU covers -1.5 37%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.