CWS @ TB

MLB · 7:10 PM ET · Friday, July 31, 2026 · Final 6–1

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong TB confidence 67.7/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 10 home (10 models)
Win probability	59% (TB, model average)
Edge vs market	+3.5% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	TB (+9 handle over tickets)

100% of 10 models home; sharp money agrees (+9 handle)

Against the spread

Lean CWS confidence 25.5/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	CWS (+17 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+17 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability CWS 41% · TB 59%

Most likely score CWS 2 – 4 TB (3%)

Total 8.0 Over 41% · Under 50%

TB covers -1.5 42%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.