PIT @ CIN

MLB · 6:10 PM ET · Friday, July 31, 2026 · Final 7–8

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong PIT confidence 36.5/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	6 away · 2 home (8 models)
Win probability	51% (PIT, model average)
Edge vs market	-4.0% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	PIT (+7 handle over tickets)

75% of 8 models away; sharp money agrees (+7 handle)

Against the spread

Lean PIT confidence 13.5/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	PIT (+9 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+9 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability PIT 55% · CIN 45%

Most likely score PIT 3 – 2 CIN (3%)

Total 7.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

CIN covers 1.5 63%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.