CONN @ CHI

WNBA · 8:00 PM ET · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · Final 88–94

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong CHI confidence 50.6/100 ✓ Pick won

Model consensus	0 away · 7 home (7 models)
Win probability	67% (CHI, model average)
Edge vs market	-0.3% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	no clear split

100% of 7 models home

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability CONN 31% · CHI 69%

Most likely score CONN 87 – 92 CHI (0%)

Total 176.5 Over 50% · Under 50%

CHI covers -4.5 52%

Total points — simulated distribution

145

146

147

148

149

150

151

152

153

154

155

156

157

158

159

160

161

162

163

164

165

166

167

168

169

170

171

172

173

174

175

176

177

178

179

180

181

182

183

184

185

186

187

188

189

190

191

192

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

202

203

204

205

206

207

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.