SF @ SD

MLB · 9:40 PM ET · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · Final 4–1

Moneyline (straight up)

Strong SD confidence 40.0/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	2 away · 7 home (9 models)
Win probability	52% (SD, model average)
Edge vs market	-8.3% — model probability minus the market's vig-free implied probability
Sharp money	SD (+7 handle over tickets)

78% of 9 models home; sharp money agrees (+7 handle)

Against the spread

Lean SD confidence 30.0/100 ✗ Pick lost

Model consensus	0 away · 0 home (no model line)
Sharp money	SD (+39 handle over tickets)

sharp money agrees (+39 handle)

Iceberg Simulation

10,000 simulations

Win probability SF 51% · SD 49%

Most likely score SF 2 – 3 SD (2%)

Total 8.5 Over 45% · Under 55%

SD covers -1.5 34%

Total points — simulated distribution

The headline pick is the tip — this is the rest of the iceberg. We run the matchup thousands of times from the consensus and market lines to show the full range of outcomes. It's our own engine and doesn't vote in the consensus above. Free, like everything here.

Sources are aggregated and anonymized. We publish facts (which side each tracked model favors), not anyone's written analysis. Picks are graded the next morning — see the track record.